Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's attempts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.