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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to adopt a strong position on Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "severe consequences" last August should Vladimir Putin continued hindering ceasefire talks, the former president ultimately enacted substantial sanctions on the Russian primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This move significantly hindered Putin's capacity to fund his war effort in the region.

However, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or European involvement, he has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's proposal would effectively favor Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative actually compromise that same independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate past, Trump continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a mere border issue, as if handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. Yet, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a destroyed region of deindustrialized area in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it stops functions as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Land Surrenders

While freezing in status the already separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would force the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding Russia with land that its troops have been unable to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukraine's military defenses severely undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that represent a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, providing Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital in case he subsequently choose to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would make renewed hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would force the nation to reduce the size of its military from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's plan sets no similar limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, the proposal states: "All extremist belief system and activities must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump sets no obligation that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should we have confidence in Putin now?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on international defense commitments. Although the initiative warns of a "decisive coordinated military response" if the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars range from vague to concerning. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, thus preventing the reassurance force, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Russia from restoring his reduced troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Reaction

An additional side agreement apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. However unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary deterrent against renewed hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, including the US administration, to respond militarily to Russia's attacks, something they have {not