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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.